Amazing

Everywhere I am reading that conservatism is making a comeback -- conservatism is on the rise. Today, in Texas, we had an East Texas conservative Democrat switch to the Republican Party. Chuck Hopson, who said not too long ago that he would resign from the Texas House of Representatives before he would switch parties, just switched parties. Each article about him drew a flood of comments like "he didn't leave the Democratic Party, the party left him". An article in the Austin American-Statesman, the major newspaper in one of the more liberal areas of the state, was followed by a torrent of similar comments that quickly turned into a series of all-out vicious attacks on Lloyd Doggett.

I do not understand what has gotten into people. It is like the "Invasion of the Body Snatchers".

Just over a year ago, the conventional wisdom appeared to be approaching a majority view that the laissez faire policies of the Republican Party and, in particular, the Bush administration had finally come home to roost resulting in a failed economy, the destruction of the middle class, unprecedented greed, trillions of dollars in debt, and on and on. And that was just on the economic front. The Republican-controlled White House and Congress had spent and cut taxes like mad men until even Democrats were frightened by the spendthrift frenzy. Our financial system was in a shambles, Wall Street titans were gone or being bailed out by the federal government (i.e., the taxpayers), Chrysler and General Motors would be in bankruptcy within months, jobs were disappearing, the housing market had collapsed. Paulson and Bernanke shoved TARP down the throats of a panic-stricken Congress. Bernie Madoff and AIG replaced Ken Lay and Enron as the poster child for the legacy of Reagan, Phil Gramm, and George Bush (II not I).

By November 2008, it had gotten so bad that the Republicans were swept out of Congressional and Senate seats across the country in areas that had been crimson (not just red). Barack Obama dramatically carried states that had not voted Democratic since Lyndon Johnson defeated Barry Goldwater. Democrats and liberal pundits were giddy and predicting decades of wandering in the wilderness for the Republican Party and conservatism.

Then Obama took office and the Bush and Republican induced wobbly wheels fell off. The cows came home. The fat fell in the fire. Call it whatever you want. What happened was that Obama no longer had the luxury of campaigning and criticizing. He now had to actually implement some of that campaign rhetoric that had all of us liberals so "fired up and ready to go". George Bush slinked off to Crawford and Dallas, Karl Rove became just another Fox News talking bobblehead, and the big target and bulls-eye was now firmly planted in the middle of Obama's chest or forehead. The stimulus bill was passed, the United States government became the largest shareholder of GM and fired its CEO, and the daily conversation from the Greek chorus of the media and the analysts and the columnists was no longer about spending a billion here and a billion there. Remember when a billion dollars seemed like a lot of money? Now, everything costs about a trillion dollars and it is all Obama's and the Democrat's baby. No one seems to remember just last Fall while George Bush was still President when the U.S. economy on several occasions lost trillions of dollars in market value in less than eight hours between the opening and closing bells on Wall Street.

Then, along came health care reform and the heat of summer and Glenn Beck and teabaggers and photos of Obama with a Hitler-like moustache and angry screaming town hall meeting attendees who could not decide whether Obama and Democratic congressmen are Socialists, Communists, Fascists or Nazis.

In the last three or four weeks, all the so-called political experts and commentators have been engaged in an introverted dialogue with themselves about how the rise and comeback of conservatism and Republicans would be measured by the New Jersey and Virginia governor elections -- incontrovertible referenda on the Obama presidency. With McDonnell and Christie carrying those races for the Republicans, there can be no surer indication that the Democratic resurgence led by Obama is dead on arrival. Or, so they say.

So what's going on here? Well, several things I think.

For one thing, President Obama and his administration are a little too smart for their own good and maybe too smart and cute by half for their britches. They have lost the message war to the Republicans who are pros at this game. The health care debate is a perfect example. The Republicans and the Dick Armeys of the world (even that Rhodes Scholar, Sarah Palin has gotten into the game) have come up with "death panels", "government-run health care", "bureaucrats between you and your doctor", and on and on. And what do the Democrats counter with in the in word war -- "public option". Take that, Sean and Rush and Glenn. You have got to be kidding me. That's the best we can do? It almost convinces me that we have no business trying to compete with the health insurance companies if that is our best shot.

As for those New Jersey and Virginia election results. Has it ever occurred to all these brilliant pundits that Corzine and Deeds lost because they were lousy candidates and lousy Democrats and unattractive to independents? I mean, come on, a former Goldman Sachs CEO (who sold his stock for over $400 million) is not exactly going to relate to independent and Democratic voters. Deeds' primary claim to fame is that he is a politician. His entire career consists of ten years in the Virginian House of Delegates, nine years in the Virginia Senate, and a prior loss to Bob McDonnell. Wow -- no wonder the total voter turnout was barely more than half the Presidential election a year ago. Why would anyone think that New Jersey Democrats, much less independents or liberal Republicans, would go vote for a former Wall Street multi-millionaire just because Barack Obama asked them to. He can no more force voters to cast a ballot for a candidate they don't like than he can force those same conservative Democrats or independents to accept Nancy Pelosi or Harry Reid or Chris Dodd or Barney Frank or Charlie Rangel or Henry Waxman or on and on.

Lastly, it seem to me that it is not rocket science to figure out that Barack Obama was a phenomenon as a candidate who attracted voters for a myriad of reasons -- personal charisma, incredible oratory, White guilt, intelligence, Bush/Cheney backlash and on and on -- most of which are personal to him and do not carry over to others including otherwise unattractive candidates.

I hope these rather obvious factors are the real reasons for recent election outcomes and not a massive pendulum swing back to conservatism and the Republican Party. If so, the Obama administration needs to get smart about all this real fast and the agenda of hope and change can be salvaged. If not, then we blew a really really big opportunity.